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Percentage Risk of HIV Transmission

SourcePercentageOdds
NONSEXUAL MODES
Blood transfusion90.00%9 in 10
Needle sharing (injection drug use)0.67%1 in 149
Needlestick (percutaneous; through the skin)0.30%1 in 333
Bitting, spitting, throwing body fluids (including semen or saliva); sharing sex toysnegligiblenegligible
ORAL SEX
Receptive partner (giving a blow job)0% - 0.04%0-1 in 2,500
Insertive partner (getting a blow job)~0%about zero
VAGINAL SEX
Risk to female with HIV-positive male partner
----- High-income countries0.08%1 in 1,250
----- Low-income countries0.30%1 in 333
Risk to male with HIV-positive female partner
----- High-income countries0.04%1 in 1,250
----- Low-income countries0.38%1 in 263
ANAL SEX
Insertive parner's risk (circumcised)0.11%1 in 909
Insertive partner's risk (uncircumcised)0.62%1 in 161
Receptive partner's risk (without ejaculation)0.65%1 in 154
Receptive partner's risk (with ejaculation)1.43%1 in 70

Other Numbers to Know

  • Acute infection, roughly the 12 weeks after contracting HIV, can increase transmission likelihood 26 times, raising a 1.43% risk to 37% — higher than 1 in 3. This is because viral load skyrockets during the acute phase
  • Presence of other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) can amplify risk by as much as 8 times
  • Exposure to gender inequality and intimate partner violence an raise a woman’s HIV risk 1.5 times

Decrease HIV Risk

  • Circumcision can lower heterosexual men’s risk by 60%
  • Treatment as prevention, when HIV-positive people on meds maintain an undetectable viral load, can reduce transmission risk by 96%. Some research hints that the number may approach 100%
  • Pre-exposure prophylaxis, PrEP, when HIV-negative people take daily med like Truvada, can decrease risk by upwards of 92%, depending on adherence. Post-exposure prophylaxis, PEP, works similarly
  • Condoms, according to the CDC, lower risk on average by 80%
  • forms of seroadaptation, such as having condomless sex only with people of the same sero status, can also lower risk, but the outcomes vary

References

  • From POZ, April/May 2014

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